Space Access Manifesto


What?

Get off this planet ASAP. Not in a runaway sense, but in an exploration sense, or a tourism sense or an economic sense, or all of these things, or none of these. Note that I take a general approach to Space Access; it isn't necessarily only about getting humans off-planet; concepts like Solar Power Satellites are needed, and require lots of launching. Launching considered good. Flags and footprints considered bad.

Why?

Because it's a cool thing to do. Because there's money to be made doing it. Because zero-g is fantastic. Because looking back at the Earth is neat. Because some people want to go to Mars (I don't, but I don't mind it that others do).

Space Access is a way to permit humans to expand outwards into the solar system, and to improve life on Earth. I'm currently exploring ways to reduce costs to access space.

How?

Rockets. They're not as inefficient as generally supposed. Maybe 10% to get to orbit. Perhaps twice as much fuel as that needed to fly around the Earth. They're also not as expensive as generally supposed- the problem is the low launch rate. I'm going to try to do something about that.

Probably without sticky out wings more like Soyuz. I quite like the Skylon technology, but economics look dodgy, Alan Bond needs to sort that out.

What about Space Elevators? They might work too. They're currently impossible though: CNTs are too short and/or too weak, the Van Allen belts get in the way, and when CNTs snap they release very large amounts of energy.

When?

Soon. 5-10 years.

Ideas?

Space Access is all about lower cost/kg!!!!!

Space Access is all about launch rate. High launch rate translates into high production rates into lower costs. Reusable considered harmful! It leads to low production rates and lower payloads. Studies show that it never wins out, with plausible numbers for pure rocket vehicles. Which doesn't necessarily make it a truly bad idea; absolute lowest cost isn't always 100% needed, but it typically is.

Solar Power Satellites demand high launch rates and low cost space access. But that's not here right now; the costs are at $5000/kg, when they need to be $400/kg.

Dumb(ish) rockets are probably the way forward for the time being, not highly complex vehicles like Skylon, the market isn't ready.

Orbital space tourism is iffy- it's a small market. It needs to grow. To grow we need a high launch rate, which implies cheaper launch vehicles and lower prices.

Space suits are a problem; they cost a lot and don't last well.

Suborbital space tourism is iffy too. But it's still worth a try. The vomit comet is a great idea.

There is evidence that the Russians are sandbagging somewhat on price. They can probably launch for about 1/5 of what they do. The difference is profit. Profit is not a bad thing; but it means they are capable of launching for rather less, particularly in mass launch scenarios.

By contrast, the American launch vehicles seem very expensive. The Shuttle is a basket case; it's a dancing bear, it's impressive that it dances at all. Soyuz dances, but it is probably slightly too crude right now; a reusable(?) glider reentry portion is a much better idea.

Principles

It's not performance uber al. Performance is important because it increases payload size.

Cheap cargo to space cheaply.

Humans need highly safe launch vehicles (not necessarily highly reliable). Separate the humans from the cheap stuff.

Expensive cargo needs highly reliable launch. Geosat launchers currently treat GEO transfer fuel as expensive. This needs to stop.

R&D costs are as important as cost/kg.

Turbopumps considered harmful. turbopumps are difficult to design, expensive to manufacture and do not scale (you completely redesign them to make them bigger or smaller).

Links?

A rocket a day keeps the high costs away - a discussion of why high launch rates reduce rocket costs
Rotary rocket stuff  - an ill-fated SSTO space launch vehicle the 'Roton'
XCOR aerospace - a darn fine bunch of guys that build rocket planes and rocket engines (many used to work for Rotary)
Neofuel - interplanetary travel on the cheap using water
HOW to DESIGN, BUILD and TEST SMALL LIQUID-FUEL ROCKET ENGINES  - building a petrol/oxygen rocket engine
Skylon Spaceplane - a single stage to orbit spaceplane that could be built within the next ten years, bit expensive on the R&D though